한미 국채 금리 이틀간 10bp 상승 그쳐미국 금리 중립·한국 금리 단기 상승 전망

세계 3대 신용평가사 피치가 미국의 국가 신용등급을 강등(AAA→AA+)한 이후 국내외 금리는 소폭 올랐지만 크게 오르지는 않으며 국내 금융시장에 미치는 영향이 크지 않은 모습이다.4일 금융투자업계에 따르면 피치가 미국의 국가 신용등급을 강등(미국 기준 1일 장 종료 후·한국 기준 2일 장 개시 전)이 전해진 후 2거래일이 지난 가운데 미국 국채 금리는 30년 만기를 제외하고 10bp(0.1%) 내외 상승에 그쳤다. 강등 소식이 전해지기 전에 마감한 지난 1일 미국 국채 2년, 5년, 10년, 30년 금리는 각 4.9%, 4.22%, 4.02%, 4.09%였다. 3일에는 각 4.88%(2년), 4.29%(5년), 4.18%(10년), 4.29%(30년)를 기록했다.국내 국고채의 경우도 미국 신용등급 강등이 알려진 지난 2거래일간 금리 상승폭이 역시 10bp(0.1%) 내외에 그쳤다. 강등 소식이 전인 지난 1일 국고채 2년, 3년, 5년, 10년, 30년 금리는 각 3.686%, 3.647%, 3.667%, 3.727%, 3.643%를 기록했는데 3일 각 3.745%, 3.714%, 3.755%, 3.861%, 3.704%로 마감했다. 4일 오전에도 5년물 이상은 상승추세를 이어갔으나 상승폭은 0.05% 이내에 그쳤고, 3년물은 오히려 하락했다.

2011년8월초 미국과 한국의 장단기 금리 추이.<자료=신영증권>앞서 2011년 8월5일(현지시간 기준) 스탠더드앤푸어스(S&P)가 정규장 마감 이후 역시 미국의 신용등급을 같은 수준(AAA→AA+)으로 내린 직후에는 전세계 금융시장이 요동쳤다. 다음 거래일인 2011년8월8일 미국 증시는 하루만에 6% 내외(다우지수 -5.5%·S&P500 -6.7%·나스닥 -6.9%) 급락했고 미국 10년물 국채 금리도 하루만에 24bp(0.24%) 하락했다. 10거래일이 지난 19일 종가 기준으로도 미국 증시는 6% 내외의 하락률(5일 종가 대비)을 유지했고 한국 증시는 낙폭을 오히려 키워 코스피가 7.
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